Key Points
According to Consumer Price Index (CPI) data published in mid-July, inflation in June fell 0.4% for the month and was 3.5% annualized, the largest monthly decline since April 2020. For Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) holders down 49% from October 2025’s all-time high, that readout was a breath of fresh air.
One print isn’t going to kick off a new crypto bull market on its own. But it’s still a step forward in fulfilling some of the preconditions for one, so let’s take a closer look at how this might affect the market.
The mechanics of a market turn
Every recent crypto bull market has happened when central banks, especially the Federal Reserve, were adding liquidity to the financial system or credibly promising to do so in the near future. Because of that, inflation may be acting as a gatekeeper for the next bull market, because the Fed won’t cut rates while it’s nowhere close to meeting its 2% inflation target on the basis of its own data.
So, at best, June’s data is a signal that inflation may be moving in the right direction.
Core CPI, a measure that excludes major spending categories like food and energy, was 2.6% annualized and flat month over month, indicating a real improvement. But the U.S.-Iran ceasefire that pulled gasoline prices down last month has since fallen apart, and July’s report will probably reverse the relief.
For anyone thinking about whether now is the right moment to accumulate more, know that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will want several clean months before making any decisions about the interest rate.
Which coins could lead the next bull market?
Bitcoin’s bear market is about eight months old.
The 2018 and 2022 downturns ran close to a year, which is typical. Per most interpretations of the coin’s four-year cycle, there could be a bottom around October or November this year.
So a leg up for Bitcoin in the fall or early winter would put the next bull market on schedule. As new cycles start, expect to see old patterns repeat.
Bitcoin will lead the market because it soaks up the most liquidity, exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows, and institutional interest. Ethereum and Solana tend to follow within weeks; their leading smart contract ecosystems draw the next tranche of institutional attention.
Altcoins rally later, if at all, so they belong further down in a long-term crypto allocation, and it’s questionable whether they’re worth buying at all.
In short, the smartest move here is to remain patient.
Build up your holdings of Bitcoin, keep some dry powder to buy any last bear market dips that may present themselves in the coming months, and watch how inflation is trending. If it looks like rate cuts are coming within a quarter, the bull market won’t wait for them before it starts to run.
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Alex Carchidi has positions in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
